Win the West is a Super PAC in support of Joe Biden for President with two missions:
Keep existing blue states out west blue
Compete in purple states out west, with the aim of flipping them blue
We are based in the west, and Win the West will be singularly focused on investing heavily in battleground states throughout the continental western United States. Our efforts will be data driven and digital-first with the goal of identifying, persuading and turning out critical voting blocs to help win key western states and ultimately to help propel Joe Biden to the White House in 2020.
Our Plan to Win
In 2016, Democrats narrowly lost the presidency to Donald Trump despite winning the popular vote by 2,868,686 votes — and by 2.1% nationally. In the electoral college, Trump won 304-227.
Conventional wisdom four years ago was that Democrats had an impenetrable blue firewall in the midwestern states of Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as in Pennsylvania. This was never truly the case – the leads in those states were fragile, and as we all know, did not hold up. Trump punctured that blue firewall in 2016, and the rest is history.
While much of the national efforts will be laser-focused on rebuilding the Democratic firewall in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, along with investments in perpetual battleground states like Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, the fact is that throughout the western United States, demographics and voter registration trends are shifting in Democrats’ favor — and the electoral map is changing rapidly.
Historically, Arizona, a state worth 11 electoral college votes (one more vote than Wisconsin) has not been a modern-day competitive battleground for Democrats in presidential contests. But Democrats lost the state to Trump four years ago by a mere 3.5% — and only 91,234 votes overall. And in 2018, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema turned a U.S. Senate seat blue, and Mark Kelly has a meaningful chance to do the same in 2020.
Similarly, Texas, the second most electoral college vote-rich state in the union, has gone red for decades. Still, in 2016 Democrats came within single digits — losing the state to Trump by 8.99% — a smaller margin than former battleground states like Iowa and Missouri, and a similar margin to Ohio. Then in 2018, in a competitive race for the U.S. Senate, Democrats missed out on a win in the Lone Star State by a mere 2.6%, in a non-presidential year no less. Bringing Texas into play is about going on offense; forcing Donald Trump and his allies to spend money defending a state that they cannot afford to lose under any circumstances, with the chance of Democrats delivering an electoral college prize that virtually eliminates Trump’s pathway to victory.
Today in Arizona, former Vice President Joe Biden is currently polling ahead of Donald Trump by 3.8% according to polling averages – a bigger margin than Wisconsin, Florida, and North Carolina, and the same margin as Biden leads in Pennsylvania. This suggests Arizona will not be icing on the cake, but an essential part of the electoral map.
Today in Texas, Biden is behind Trump by only 2.6%. Together, Arizona’s 11 electoral college votes and Texas’ 38 electoral college votes more than make up for the electoral votes that Democrats lost in Michigan (16 electoral college votes), Pennsylvania (20 electoral college votes) and Wisconsin (10 electoral college votes). A Democrat who won Hillary Clinton’s coalition of states plus Texas and Arizona would win the electoral college, even without winning back Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
While Texas and Arizona are currently going to be swing states with razor-thin margins, in the long run, demographic change could allow these states to form the frontiers of a Western blue firewall that could prove to be much more robust and durable than the Democrats’ pre-2016 electoral college roadmap. Given that these two western states are polling at a razor-thin margin and recent 2018 elections showed unprecedented gains for Democrats, Win the West is determined to invest heavily in both states to ensure they are competitive battlegrounds this fall for Vice President Joe Biden.
Moreover, while Colorado and Nevada have gone blue every cycle since 2008, Democrats won both states by less than five percent in 2016. While offense will be a greater focus of Win the West than defense, Win the West will, based on data, dedicate the resources needed to ensure that the blue status of these historic swing states remains unchallenged.
The goal of the Win the West in 2020 will be to help deliver the region for Joe Biden, and the goal of Win the West beyond 2020 will be to build a lasting, durable blue stronghold for years to come.